Dynamic numerical models of flank collapse and tsunami
PI: Christelle Wauthier, Department of Geosciences, EMS & Associate Director, ICDS
The goal of this research is to model numerically and dynamically the instability and collapse of volcanoes that can generate deadly tsunami at ocean islands. In addition to the primary hazards posed by volcanic eruptions—such as lava flows, ashfall, and pyroclastic density currents—flank motion represents a significant but often underestimated threat. Lateral flank collapse events can mobilize vast volumes of material, leading to severe direct consequences (Devoli et al., 2009), as well as indirect hazards like explosive eruptions triggered by magma reservoir depressurization (Alidibirov and Dingwell, 1996) and tsunamis, particularly at coastal and ocean island volcanoes (Ward, 2002; Lipman and Calvert, 2013). Although relatively rare, giant or large-scale edifice collapses are estimated to occur approximately four times per century (Siebert, 1992) and rank among the most dangerous volcanic phenomena. However, they remain poorly understood due to the scarcity of direct observations (McGuire, 1996). A notable example is the 1888 collapse of Ritter Island in Papua New Guinea, the largest historical lateral collapse of an ocean island volcano. It generated tsunami waves reaching up to 15 meters in height and impacting regions hundreds of kilometers away (Ward and Day, 2003). Another catastrophic event was the 1792 sector collapse of Mount Mayuyama at Unzen Volcano, Japan, which triggered a tsunami that caused over 15,000 fatalities—making it the second deadliest volcano-induced tsunami after Krakatau’s 1883 eruption (Giachetti et al., 2012). More recently, the partial collapse of Anak Krakatau (the “child of Krakatau”, a very active volcano that emerged at the center of the remnants of the 1883 Krakatau caldera), partially collapsed in 2018 (Cheol et al., 2024) triggering a tsunami that killed over two hundreds of people. Given the inevitability of future large-scale flank collapses, it is critical to investigate and simulate the range of contributing factors and their role in the resulting hazards, particularly for the diverse array of ocean island volcanoes vulnerable to flank instability. We will use Finite Element models to simulate flank motion and collapse at a couple of example volcanoes including Kilauea Volcano, HI, Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, and Piton de la Fournaise, La Reunion Island.
List of specific areas of computational and/or data science expertise or skills: Numerical modeling experience such as FEMs or discrete elements.
List of specific objectives for work supported by this call: The method should be successful at simulating flank motion and collapse realistically. The results will then support grant proposals to NSF, NASA, and other relevant opportunities (for example to the NSF Volcanology call in Spring 2026). We will submit at the minimum three papers showcasing the models for the three selected volcanoes given their past history collapse.
Connection of the project to ICDS’s mission: we will develop and apply computationally intensive simulations methods to natural hazards processes and forecasting of deadly secondary hazards. Numerical dynamic models using finite, discrete elements, or other numerical method to simulate collapse of volcanoes and tsunami propagation will be developped.