Simulate and forecast magma propagation through fractures using extended finite elements
PI: Christelle Wauthier (EMS)
The goal of this research is to forecast eruptive fissure’s locations by applying the Extended Finite Elements approach. The project will simulate a 3D volcano with realistic topographies in a FEM software such as Abaqus and a known magma chamber location. By simulating the input of new magma in the chamber (magma overpressure), we will use Extended Finite Elements to generate fractures through the ground. We will compare the predicted FEM fracture location with real eruption cases at two specific volcanoes: Nyamuragira Volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo, in the East African Rift where the topographic and tectonic (extension – rifting) stress fields will be added, as well as at Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii. We will test the influence of each model parameter carefully and characterize model output uncertainties.
List of specific areas of computational and/or data science expertise or skills:
Finite Element experience.
List of specific objectives for work supported by this call:
The method should be successful at simulating new eruption locations. The results will then support grant proposals to NSF, NASA, and other relevant opportunities (for example to the NSF Volcanology call in Spring 2026). We will submit one paper at the minimum showcasing the method for the two selected volcanoes given their past eruptive history and well known previous eruptive fissure locations.
Connection of the project to ICDS’s mission:
We will develop and apply computationally intensive simulations methods to natural hazards processes and forecasting of eruption location.